Regression to the Mean

“The only thing that is constant is change.” ~Heraclitus

Have you ever experienced a hardship and felt like it would never end? When we’re in seasons of want, it’s easy to forget what seasons of plenty feel like.

A mathematical term, "Regression to the Mean,” has brought me great comfort in adversity. Statistically, it refers to the phenomenon in which a sample or value that falls at an extreme is usually followed by a sample closer to the mean. In short, no matter the circumstance, whether bad or good, everything has to return to the middle eventually. Recognizing this trend does a couple of things for us. First, it serves as encouragement that our tribulations won’t last forever. One day, it will get better. Second, when we find ourselves at a peak, we can have humility and gratitude for however long it may last. 

Oscar Wilde echoed this idea when he said, “Some things are precious because they don’t last long.” We can appreciate blessings far more deeply when we’re honest about how our circumstances will eventually fall back to the middle. Likewise, we can have hope in hardship because we know it too will pass. Cognizance alone of regression to the mean is enough to bring us some level of peace. In an article entitled “Regression Toward the Mean: An Introduction with Examples” by the Brain Food Newsletter, the author writes,

Luckily awareness of the regression to the mean phenomenon itself is already a great first step towards a more careful approach to understanding luck and performance. If there is anything to be learned from the regression to the mean it is the importance of track records rather than relying on one-time success stories. I hope that the next time you come across an extreme quality in part governed by chance you will realize that the effects are likely to regress over time and will adjust your expectations accordingly.*

C.S. Lewis referred to it as the “Law of Undulation” in his book The Screwtape Letters. As humans, our “nearest approach to constancy therefore is undulation: the repeated return to a level from which [we] repeatedly fall back, a series of troughs and peaks” (Lewis, p. 37). We experience this “in every Department of life--[our] interest in [our] work, [our] affection for [our] friends, [our] physical appetites, it will go up and down. As long as [we] live on earth periods of emotional and bodily richness and liveliness will alternate with periods of numbness and poverty” (Lewis, p. 37-38). 

Nothing on earth can remain the same for too long. It is an integral part of the human experience. Acknowledging regression to the mean can foster humility at our peaks and hope in our troughs. Adversities are not without purpose, for it is in our troughs that God shapes us into the people He wants us to be. He uses them to establish virtues of humility, perseverance, patience, contentment, and courage. Lewis even says our “prayers offered in the state of dryness are those which please [God] best” (Lewis, p. 40).

So, if you are in a current trough, take heart in knowing it won’t last forever. God treasures the prayers you offer Him during this time, and he “never allows this state of affairs to last long” (Lewis, p. 40). Find strength in the knowledge God can use this time to sharpen your resilience and perseverance, which will serve you well in the future. Eventually, things will come back to the middle.

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*To learn more about regression to the mean, visit Brain Food Newsletter